Learn to cope with uncertainty and risk with advice from a master economist. Economic uncertainty is like the weather: you can't stop storms, but understanding them prepares you. Uncertainty is beyond our control, but when you take the mystery and dread out of uncertainty, you can respond much more effectively. The practical and empowering lectures of The Economics of Uncertainty give you tools to deal with risk.
The Economics of Uncertainty
Learn how to cope with economic uncertainty and risk in these 24 advice-filled lectures from a master economist.
Rated 5 out of
5
by
Furl from
Excellent Course
Worth much more than its retail price!
Quite informative and practical in application .
Date published: 2022-08-16
Rated 3 out of
5
by
Creature from
Fine
I am still watching however the video is fuzzy at times.
Date published: 2022-06-25
Rated 5 out of
5
by
Cousindrew from
Excellent course!
I have watched or listened to several of Fullenkamp's courses for the Teaching Company, and I am a big fan. He is easy to listen to, has a great grasp of his subject matter, and is able to convey concepts in a way that is understandable to the novice and interesting to the expert. He delivers again in this course. While much of the material will likely be familiar to some, Prof. Fullenkamp provides interesting insights and ways to think about risk and uncertainty that make the course very worthwhile for all. Highly recommended!
Date published: 2022-06-03
Rated 5 out of
5
by
Dick I from
Great Topic, Great Professor
Both my wife and I really enjoyed this series of lectures. Very down to earth subject matter with practical explanations for people with non-financial backgrounds. Would recommend for anyone.
Date published: 2022-05-09
Rated 5 out of
5
by
BC70 from
Great information
Great info and outstanding presenter. Very glad I bought this course
Date published: 2021-08-27
Rated 4 out of
5
by
logicalpositiv from
Very good start into this fairly new field in econ
This course provided a very good introduction into using probability in economics at all levels.
Date published: 2021-05-10
Rated 5 out of
5
by
Juditka from
Very informative
I am happy I bought it. Informative, witty, easy to follow. Great lecturer.
Date published: 2020-06-15
Rated 4 out of
5
by
Marco74 from
There is more math than I thought there'd be.
When I saw the title, I jumped for it. And I was enthralled at the start. But, I don't buy these lessons to directly engage the concepts, but rather to just listen to them while I do other things around the house or at work.
The Math involved started to get to a point where I had to start to pay more attention than I usually like to do -- (not that is "hard" per se).
The concepts are still excellent, and I am enjoying it, but I find that I feel guilty if I am not following the Math at the same pace as the lecturer. So, I would have to stop my cooking and think it through or just miss out on the subtlety of the concepts.
But overall, the lecture is informative and I enjoyed it.
Date published: 2018-07-30
Overview
About
Connel Fullenkamp is a Professor of the Practice of Economics at Duke University. He received his PhD in Economics from Harvard University. He has won multiple teaching awards during his career, including Duke’s highest honor for undergraduate teaching. He also does consulting work for the International Monetary Fund Institute for Capacity Development, training government officials around the world. He has published more than 20 articles in academic journals, and his op-eds have appeared in Newsweek and The New York Times.
Trailer
01: Man, Nature, and Economic Uncertainty
Professor Fullenkamp begins with "black swan" events-occurrences that are considered as improbable as black swans. A notable recent example is the 2008 financial crisis. This leads to an examination of the nature of uncertainty and the best strategy for dealing with it....
33 min
02: Turning Uncertainty into Risk
When faced with an uncertain situation, try turning it into a "risky" situation. Risk is probability. Knowledge is power. This may sound counterintuitive, but it's a surprisingly effective approach, pioneered by University of Chicago economist Frank Knight. See where it applies and does not apply in economic settings....
30 min
03: Five Ways to Face the Unknown
In dealing with uncertainty, it makes sense to have an arsenal of different strategies. Explore five techniques for risk management that can be used in every sphere of life: producing information, diversifying, sharing risk, avoiding risk, and absorbing risk. Probe instructive examples of each....
29 min
04: Probability: Frequency or Belief?
Examine two different types of probability. Frequency-based probabilities rely on many examples of a phenomenon, while subjective probabilities call on personal experience and judgment, often drawing on relatively few cases. Learn to think critically about these two approaches, and know when to use them....
30 min
05: How We Misjudge Likelihood and Risk
Improve your ability to handle uncertainty by studying two ways that people reach decisions. System 1 excels at making snap judgments, while System 2 is analytical, methodical, and more time-consuming. Weigh the strengths and weaknesses of each, focusing on the problem of estimating probabilities....
30 min
06: The Reward in Risk
Having learned to convert uncertainty to risk in Lecture 2, now go deeper by investigating how probabilities can gauge rewards and risks. Test risk-assessing tools used in finance, including expected value, variance, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Sharpe ratio, covariance, and beta....
33 min
07: Decision Science Tools
When is a risky project worth doing? Learn how corporate managers decide whether they should undertake a new enterprise. Discover that simple graphic aids, such as scenario analysis and decision trees, are powerful tools for weighing risk in both business and daily life....
31 min
08: Gambling Economics
Gambling makes some people nervous, but it gives valuable insight into any type of risk-taking activity, including investing and entrepreneurship. Explore the role of games of skill and chance in the economy, and apply their lessons to activities such as banking and retirement planning....
31 min
09: Game Theory: Reveal or Conceal?
Use game theory to shed light on strategic interactions, which are competitive transactions involving people or organizations. Such interactions can range from negotiating the sale of a house to pricing products for maximum sales. As an example, analyze an intriguing competition between two potato chip brands....
30 min
10: Adverse Selection: Hiding in Plain Sight
Adverse selection occurs when the lack of information by one party leads to a distorted result. See how this situation surfaces in many different contexts, from used car sales to investment deals to Internet purchases. Learn to recognize the adverse selection trap, and know how to correct it....
31 min
11: Moral Hazard: Whom Do You Trust?
Examine another outcome of asymmetric information: the moral hazard problem. This peril arose spectacularly in the 2008 financial crisis, with the widespread sale of bad loans to unwitting investors. But it also lurks in many small-scale transactions. Discover what you can do to combat it....
31 min
12: The Principal-Agent Problem: When Mice Play
Focus on a special case of moral hazard: the principal-agent problem, in which an agent is appointed to handle a matter beyond the expertise of the person doing the hiring (the principal). The agent may easily take unfair advantage of this situation, which covers everything from home repair to government contracting....
31 min
13: Compensation Traps
Delve into the uncertain realm of compensation contracts, which ideally motivate employees to do a good job, but too often have unintended consequences. Survey the pluses and minuses of efficiency wages, piecework, milestone payments, commissions, promotions, stock options, and other incentives....
32 min
14: Caring, Sharing, and Risk Bearing
Altruism is more complicated than simple selflessness. Instead, it may be the world's oldest and most effective risk-sharing system. Discover the power of viewing altruism as economists do-as a mathematical expression called the utility function. Also study altruism's connection to the moral hazard problem....
33 min
15: Mayhem! Insurance Protection
Investigate the multitude of ways you can insure against misfortune, from extended warranties to travel insurance to identity-theft protection-not to mention health, car, home, and life insurance. Learn how insurance products work, and get tips on what you should cover and at what value....
30 min
16: Uncertainty in the Numbers
Statistics are essential tools for dealing with uncertainty, but they should be used with caution. Put numbers such as the unemployment rate and consumer price index into context, probing how such statistics are measured and what the sampling error and confidence interval say about their reliability....
31 min
17: The Business Cycle's Wheel of Fortune
Nothing is as certain and yet so unpredictable as the business cycle; economic expansion is invariably followed by a recession-and vice versa-but economists are at a loss to forecast the timing. Study different theories of the business cycle, and learn how to prepare for the next boom or bust....
32 min
18: The Danger of Inflation
Even in times of low inflation, no one knows when prices will take off again. Look into the causes of inflation, efforts to control it, and the surprising wisdom of promoting a small degree of inflation. Also examine the disaster of deflation, which is a generalized drop in prices....
31 min
19: Extreme Markets
At any given moment, some market somewhere is making headlines because it's either hitting record highs or crashing down to earth. Learn how to approach the uncertainty of financial markets with savvy and common sense. Focus on strategies that can help you reach your financial goals....
30 min
20: Regulation, Innovation, Excess
Government policies are a major source of uncertainty, since they can alter our lives in unpredictable ways. Study the surprising outcomes from several government interventions in the U.S. economy. In particular, look at the regulatory cycle model, which shows how a complex system responds to new regulations....
32 min
21: Global Trade in Employment
Free trade produces uncertainty and anxiety in economic players at all levels. Understand how comparative advantage governs who benefits in the competition for international trade. Then hear Professor Fullenkamp's tips for how individuals can cultivate their own comparative advantage in the labor market....
32 min
22: No Limits to Growth
Look at possible catastrophes that are decades away: alarming trends such as overpopulation, scarcity of raw materials, and environmental degradation. Observe that society has so far escaped the worst predictions of experts, and explore why that is and what the future may really hold....
32 min
23: Hedging Business and Personal Risks
Examine tools that professionals use to hedge against financial risk, such as forward contracts and financial options. Study the suitability of these instruments for individuals. Then probe a more flexible strategy: real options, which are opportunities that can be seized or declined as conditions warrant....
30 min
24: Stress Testing Your Finances
Close by learning how to take the economic "stress test," inspired by bank evaluations made in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. This simple exercise helps you anticipate the most significant reversals you are likely to meet, helping you approach uncertainty with confidence and calm....
33 min
