What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear

Rated 5 out of 5 by from Very well done His years of teaching experience are highly demonstrable. His pleasant demeanor adds tho his effectiveness. I have not had much on the job experience in statistics and probability. However, i have had a life long interest in pursuing both subjects. Second time i have watched this course. Will likely do so again.
Date published: 2020-09-18
Rated 5 out of 5 by from Adding essential components to my understanding. I was initially skeptical because of other reviews but I was pleasantly surprised by this course since it supplemented my understanding of the probability. Professor Michael brought great clarity and energy his lectures, this course have filled a necessary void which was hard to plug without a tutor or in person mentor. It was a very cheap course for a very scarce topic. I will definitely take more courses from this professor, wish it was a longer course. I will keep coming back to this series again and again in the future. P.S. May be I was in the process of brushing up my fundamentals in probability , this course didn't seem to be rushed and parochial as mentioned in other reviews.
Date published: 2020-04-11
Rated 5 out of 5 by from Very good. I really enjoyed this course and learnt (and re-learnt) a lot from it. Watching it through a second time made me appreciate it even more. One thing I would mention is that Professor Starbird doesn't read from an autocue (as most of the others do) and so it truly is like attending a lecture in the flesh. That means there are more pauses, and sentences chopped off and re-started, than if he was just reading from a script. This suits Professor Starbird's friendly and informal style, and it didn't bother me at all - indeed quite the contrary. However, if you like everything read faultlessly from a script then you might sometimes get frustrated.
Date published: 2019-10-10
Rated 5 out of 5 by from What are the odds? Very interesting. In Dr Starbird opening remarks about possibilities. He said one might wonder about the possibility of having a successful eye surgery. I had just had eye surgery and had got this DVD to keep my mind occupied while I recover. Is it just a coincidence or a good probability that someone who ha eye surgery or is about to have it would watch this DVD? Did he do any research on this possibility? If so, what were the odds?
Date published: 2019-05-30
Rated 5 out of 5 by from 1st Rate Course! Professor Starbird is a real pleasure to listen to. He fully understands the material and shows passion for his work. I really re-learned a lot of what I was previously taught. Hands down, this course is superior to any YouTube video on the subject.
Date published: 2018-04-28
Rated 5 out of 5 by from What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear Professor Starbird's presentation includes surprising and nonintuitive results and thereby has the desirable quality of stimulating the student to delve more deeply into the subject.
Date published: 2017-12-27
Rated 5 out of 5 by from Great examples Happy to have bought this course.Good lectures and great examples are given by an excellent teacher.
Date published: 2017-07-01
Rated 3 out of 5 by from Not what I was hoping for The course is a general overview of what I would term the philosophy of probability. While there are entertaining anecdotal examples, do not expect to learn how to approach and solve probability problems. I thought that the lesson in which he discussed probability of rainfall to be a total waste of my time....sorry for being so harsh. I also would comment that watching these lectures illustrated one of the big drawbacks to this learning approach: the inability to ask questions to clarify issues. There were at least two specific cases where I would have like to ask a question where I believe the answer would have helped my understanding. Would I recommend this course? Yes, for people who have never been exposed to probability.
Date published: 2017-06-23
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What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear
Course Trailer
Our Random World-Probability Defined
1: Our Random World-Probability Defined

The concept of randomness and its quantification through probability is central to understanding the world of science, games, business, and other endeavors. This lecture introduces the basic laws of probability.

33 min
The Nature of Randomness
2: The Nature of Randomness

Randomness refers to situations in which given results are unpredictable, but a large enough collection of results is predictable. The goal of probability is to describe what is to be expected from randomness.

31 min
Expected Value-You Can Bet on It
3: Expected Value-You Can Bet on It

Expected value is a useful measure for making decisions about probabilistic outcomes. It provides a numerical way to judge whether to bet on a particular game or make a particular investment.

31 min
Random Thoughts on Random Walks
4: Random Thoughts on Random Walks

A random walk is a description of random fluctuations. It aids the analysis of situations ranging from counting votes to charting pollen on a fishpond, and it explains the sad fate of persistent bettors.

31 min
Probability Phenomena of Physics
5: Probability Phenomena of Physics

Quantum mechanics describes the location of subatomic particles as a probability distribution. Weather predictions also give probabilistic descriptions; but what is the meaning of a statement like "There is a 30 percent chance of rain tomorrow"?

31 min
Probability Is in Our Genes
6: Probability Is in Our Genes

Because randomness is centrally involved in passing down genetic material, probability can be used to model the distribution of genetic traits and to describe how traits of whole populations alter through a random process called genetic drift.

29 min
Options and Our Financial Future
7: Options and Our Financial Future

By characterizing the expected behavior of a stock in the future and describing a probability distribution of its likely future price, mathematicians can quantify sophisticated risks in options contracts. However, the practice can be a very dangerous game.

31 min
Probability Where We Don't Expect It
8: Probability Where We Don't Expect It

What does probability have to do with determining if a number is prime, or deciding football strategy, or training animals? More than you might think-probability often plays a central role where we least expect it.

31 min
Probability Surprises
9: Probability Surprises

No course on probability could be complete without a discussion of two of the most famous examples of counterintuitive probabilistic scenarios: the birthday problem and the Let's Make a Deal® Monty Hall question....

31 min
Conundrums of Conditional Probability
10: Conundrums of Conditional Probability

Conditional probability refers to a situation where the probability of one event is affected by some other event or piece of information. Principles of dealing correctly with conditional probability are tricky and highly nonintuitive.

30 min
Believe It or Not-Bayesian Probability
11: Believe It or Not-Bayesian Probability

This lecture looks at probability from a different point of view: namely, probability associated with measuring a level of belief as opposed to measuring the frequency with which the results of a random process occur. This is the Bayesian view of probability.

30 min
Probability Everywhere
12: Probability Everywhere

A pair of paradoxes shows the power of the Bayesian approach in analyzing counterintuitive cases in probability. The course concludes with a review of the topics covered and the importance of probability in our world.

32 min
Michael Starbird

The geometrical insights that I most like are those where different ideas come together unexpectedly to reveal some sort of a relationship that was not obvious at first


University of Wisconsin, Madison


The University of Texas at Austin

About Michael Starbird

Dr. Michael Starbird is Professor of Mathematics and University Distinguished Teaching Professor at The University of Texas at Austin, where he has been teaching since 1974. He received his B.A. from Pomona College in 1970 and his Ph.D. in Mathematics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1974. Professor Starbird's textbook, The Heart of Mathematics: An Invitation to Effective Thinking, coauthored with Edward B. Burger, won a 2001 Robert W. Hamilton Book Award. Professors Starbird and Burger also collaborated on Coincidences, Chaos, and All That Math Jazz: Making Light of Weighty Ideas, published in 2005. Professor Starbird has won many teaching awards, including the Mathematical Association of America's 2007 Deborah and Franklin Tepper Haimo National Award for Distinguished College or University Teaching of Mathematics, which is the association's most prestigious teaching award. It is awarded nationally to 3 people from its membership of 27,000. Professor Starbird is interested in bringing authentic understanding of significant ideas in mathematics to people who are not necessarily mathematically oriented. He has developed and taught an acclaimed class that presents higher-level mathematics to liberal arts students.

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