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What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear

Explore the fundamental concepts and fascinating applications of probability in this fun and engaging course by an award-winning mathematician.
 
 
Rated 5 out of 5 by from Great for a beginner/intermediate I have studied the pre-emptive and am now studying the algebra 1 via Amazon prime. I jumped at the opportunity to get a comprehensive course in probability as soon as I saw it on the Great Courses web site (not available on prime). Whether it will get too advanced I have yet to see but so far so good. Plus the Great Courses are great resources to return to again and again. Keep going and can we have AN courses please?
Date published: 2025-03-31
Rated 5 out of 5 by from Amazing Another excellent and this time amazing course by Michael Starbird. It pairs well with his Statistics course and should probably be taken first, unlike what I did (still was fine). Lecture 11 and 12 were particularly “mind blowing” to me, with his “Trout Stream” and “Two Envelopes” examples. Although I need to study further to fully get this, this was a fun and provocative introduction to a deeper understanding.
Date published: 2023-04-12
Rated 4 out of 5 by from Good introduction to probability and applications Professor Starbird is an excellent speaker and presents probability through the use of multiple practical applications covering things such as weather forecasting, genetics, the options market, voting, and more. The course does not go very deep into the math. I recommend this people looking for an introduction to probability and to teachers as a source of real world examples of where an understanding of probability is necessary.
Date published: 2023-02-05
Rated 5 out of 5 by from Fantastic Examples, very memorable I had some understanding of probability coming in, but no formal coursework, but these examples are for me the gems of the course, really opened my eyes to the application. I loved this, Starbird is really good at using examples that are relevant and important. Nice job!
Date published: 2022-07-15
Rated 5 out of 5 by from Well presented and informative My husband and I have really enjoyed a dip into this subject each lunchtime lately. The course is interesting and the lecturer is very good at making his subject understandable. I would really recommend this course.
Date published: 2022-05-04
Rated 4 out of 5 by from not what I was looking for but not bad Great teacher and interesting perspectives. I notice a lot of reviews criticizing Dr. Starbird's speaking style and presentation style. I think these are unfounded, personally. He speaks just fine and I did not feel like he bounced around on subjects like some people suggest. Granted, I have a short attention span so maybe he is and I don't pick up on it because it matches the way I understand and process information. I was hoping and expecting more on the side of getting into the mathematics of probability. I just finished the Algebra II course (also a well done course) which spent one class on probability and there were a few things I couldn't follow in that one that I was hoping to get clarified here (I re-watched and read guidebook in the Algebra class several times) which didn't happen.
Date published: 2021-11-27
Rated 2 out of 5 by from Suitable title. I deal with probability in my investment decisions every day. This course did not add to my appreciation or understanding of probability. However, it is well designed and most helpful for those who do not have a good understanding of playing the odds.
Date published: 2021-08-15
Rated 5 out of 5 by from An old pro shares his insights I have watched this twice now. What sets it apart from most intro to probability courses is the light touch and warmth of the instructor. Math teachers tend to lean toward being either comedians or robots. Starbird strikes a nice balance: he knows his stuff and has obviously taught it many times, which brings a high level of confidence to his presentations. And he is enjoying himself, which is the secret of great teaching!
Date published: 2021-01-17
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What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear

Trailer

Our Random World-Probability Defined

01: Our Random World-Probability Defined

The concept of randomness and its quantification through probability is central to understanding the world of science, games, business, and other endeavors. This lecture introduces the basic laws of probability.

33 min
The Nature of Randomness

02: The Nature of Randomness

Randomness refers to situations in which given results are unpredictable, but a large enough collection of results is predictable. The goal of probability is to describe what is to be expected from randomness.

31 min
Expected Value-You Can Bet on It

03: Expected Value-You Can Bet on It

Expected value is a useful measure for making decisions about probabilistic outcomes. It provides a numerical way to judge whether to bet on a particular game or make a particular investment.

31 min
Random Thoughts on Random Walks

04: Random Thoughts on Random Walks

A random walk is a description of random fluctuations. It aids the analysis of situations ranging from counting votes to charting pollen on a fishpond, and it explains the sad fate of persistent bettors.

31 min
Probability Phenomena of Physics

05: Probability Phenomena of Physics

Quantum mechanics describes the location of subatomic particles as a probability distribution. Weather predictions also give probabilistic descriptions; but what is the meaning of a statement like "There is a 30 percent chance of rain tomorrow"?

31 min
Probability Is in Our Genes

06: Probability Is in Our Genes

Because randomness is centrally involved in passing down genetic material, probability can be used to model the distribution of genetic traits and to describe how traits of whole populations alter through a random process called genetic drift.

29 min
Options and Our Financial Future

07: Options and Our Financial Future

By characterizing the expected behavior of a stock in the future and describing a probability distribution of its likely future price, mathematicians can quantify sophisticated risks in options contracts. However, the practice can be a very dangerous game.

31 min
Probability Where We Don't Expect It

08: Probability Where We Don't Expect It

What does probability have to do with determining if a number is prime, or deciding football strategy, or training animals? More than you might think-probability often plays a central role where we least expect it.

31 min
Probability Surprises

09: Probability Surprises

No course on probability could be complete without a discussion of two of the most famous examples of counterintuitive probabilistic scenarios: the birthday problem and the Let's Make a Deal® Monty Hall question....

31 min
Conundrums of Conditional Probability

10: Conundrums of Conditional Probability

Conditional probability refers to a situation where the probability of one event is affected by some other event or piece of information. Principles of dealing correctly with conditional probability are tricky and highly nonintuitive.

30 min
Believe It or Not-Bayesian Probability

11: Believe It or Not-Bayesian Probability

This lecture looks at probability from a different point of view: namely, probability associated with measuring a level of belief as opposed to measuring the frequency with which the results of a random process occur. This is the Bayesian view of probability.

30 min
Probability Everywhere

12: Probability Everywhere

A pair of paradoxes shows the power of the Bayesian approach in analyzing counterintuitive cases in probability. The course concludes with a review of the topics covered and the importance of probability in our world.

32 min

Overview Course No. 1474

Every time you buy a stock, play poker, or make plans based on a weather forecast, you are consigning your fate to probability. These 12 fascinating half-hour lectures help you understand the random factors that lurk behind almost everything.

Professor Michael Starbird of the University of Texas at Austin knows the secret of making numbers come alive to non-mathematicians: he picks intriguing, useful, and entertaining examples. Here are some that you will explore in your investigation of probability as a reasoning tool: When did the most recent common ancestor of all humans live? How much should you pay for a stock option? What do you do on third down with long yardage?

After an introduction to the key concepts of probability, you will delve into the wealth of applications, from biology to physics to finance to war. Probability comes to the rescue to describe what we should expect from the randomness of life. Take hold of this powerful tool and you can dispel uncertainty and understand the true odds in the game of life.

About

Michael Starbird

The geometrical insights that I most like are those where different ideas come together unexpectedly to reveal some sort of a relationship that was not obvious at first

INSTITUTION

The University of Texas at Austin

Dr. Michael Starbird is Professor of Mathematics and University Distinguished Teaching Professor at The University of Texas at Austin, where he has been teaching since 1974. He received his B.A. from Pomona College in 1970 and his Ph.D. in Mathematics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1974. Professor Starbird's textbook, The Heart of Mathematics: An Invitation to Effective Thinking, coauthored with Edward B. Burger, won a 2001 Robert W. Hamilton Book Award. Professors Starbird and Burger also collaborated on Coincidences, Chaos, and All That Math Jazz: Making Light of Weighty Ideas, published in 2005. Professor Starbird has won many teaching awards, including the Mathematical Association of America's 2007 Deborah and Franklin Tepper Haimo National Award for Distinguished College or University Teaching of Mathematics, which is the association's most prestigious teaching award. It is awarded nationally to 3 people from its membership of 27,000. Professor Starbird is interested in bringing authentic understanding of significant ideas in mathematics to people who are not necessarily mathematically oriented. He has developed and taught an acclaimed class that presents higher-level mathematics to liberal arts students.

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