Learn how to understand the random factors behind almost everything&;amp;-from the combinations of genes that produced you to the odds of how long you'll have to wait at a bus stop. In What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear, award-winning Professor Michael Starbird makes the secret of numbers come alive for nonmathematicians. He picks intriguing, useful, and entertaining examples to illustrate the fundamental concepts of probability and teaches you how to apply probability to areas of your life ranging from physics to biology to finance; understand the nature of randomness and probabilistic reasoning; and much more.
What Are the Chances? Probability Made Clear
Explore the fundamental concepts and fascinating applications of probability in this fun and engaging course by an award-winning mathematician.
Rated 5 out of
5
by
Gwick from
Amazing
Another excellent and this time amazing course by Michael Starbird. It pairs well with his Statistics course and should probably be taken first, unlike what I did (still was fine). Lecture 11 and 12 were particularly “mind blowing” to me, with his “Trout Stream” and “Two Envelopes” examples. Although I need to study further to fully get this, this was a fun and provocative introduction to a deeper understanding.
Date published: 2023-04-12
Rated 4 out of
5
by
quickfoxlmd from
Good introduction to probability and applications
Professor Starbird is an excellent speaker and presents probability through the use of multiple practical applications covering things such as weather forecasting, genetics, the options market, voting, and more. The course does not go very deep into the math. I recommend this people looking for an introduction to probability and to teachers as a source of real world examples of where an understanding of probability is necessary.
Date published: 2023-02-05
Rated 5 out of
5
by
DTWeiseth from
Fantastic Examples, very memorable
I had some understanding of probability coming in, but no formal coursework, but these examples are for me the gems of the course, really opened my eyes to the application. I loved this, Starbird is really good at using examples that are relevant and important. Nice job!
Date published: 2022-07-15
Rated 5 out of
5
by
Echo67 from
Well presented and informative
My husband and I have really enjoyed a dip into this subject each lunchtime lately. The course is interesting and the lecturer is very good at making his subject understandable. I would really recommend this course.
Date published: 2022-05-04
Rated 4 out of
5
by
Phil926 from
not what I was looking for but not bad
Great teacher and interesting perspectives. I notice a lot of reviews criticizing Dr. Starbird's speaking style and presentation style. I think these are unfounded, personally. He speaks just fine and I did not feel like he bounced around on subjects like some people suggest. Granted, I have a short attention span so maybe he is and I don't pick up on it because it matches the way I understand and process information.
I was hoping and expecting more on the side of getting into the mathematics of probability. I just finished the Algebra II course (also a well done course) which spent one class on probability and there were a few things I couldn't follow in that one that I was hoping to get clarified here (I re-watched and read guidebook in the Algebra class several times) which didn't happen.
Date published: 2021-11-27
Rated 2 out of
5
by
Yards from
Suitable title.
I deal with probability in my investment decisions every day. This course did not add to my appreciation or understanding of probability. However, it is well designed and most helpful for those who do not have a good understanding of playing the odds.
Date published: 2021-08-15
Rated 5 out of
5
by
WatchingU from
An old pro shares his insights
I have watched this twice now. What sets it apart from most intro to probability courses is the light touch and warmth of the instructor. Math teachers tend to lean toward being either comedians or robots. Starbird strikes a nice balance: he knows his stuff and has obviously taught it many times, which brings a high level of confidence to his presentations. And he is enjoying himself, which is the secret of great teaching!
Date published: 2021-01-17
Rated 5 out of
5
by
Sart45 from
Very well done
His years of teaching experience are highly demonstrable. His pleasant demeanor adds tho his effectiveness. I have not had much on the job experience in statistics and probability. However, i have had a life long interest in pursuing both subjects. Second time i have watched this course. Will likely do so again.
Date published: 2020-09-18
Overview
About
Dr. Michael Starbird is Professor of Mathematics and University Distinguished Teaching Professor at The University of Texas at Austin, where he has been teaching since 1974. He received his B.A. from Pomona College in 1970 and his Ph.D. in Mathematics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1974. Professor Starbird's textbook, The Heart of Mathematics: An Invitation to Effective Thinking, coauthored with Edward B. Burger, won a 2001 Robert W. Hamilton Book Award. Professors Starbird and Burger also collaborated on Coincidences, Chaos, and All That Math Jazz: Making Light of Weighty Ideas, published in 2005. Professor Starbird has won many teaching awards, including the Mathematical Association of America's 2007 Deborah and Franklin Tepper Haimo National Award for Distinguished College or University Teaching of Mathematics, which is the association's most prestigious teaching award. It is awarded nationally to 3 people from its membership of 27,000. Professor Starbird is interested in bringing authentic understanding of significant ideas in mathematics to people who are not necessarily mathematically oriented. He has developed and taught an acclaimed class that presents higher-level mathematics to liberal arts students.
Trailer
01: Our Random World-Probability Defined
The concept of randomness and its quantification through probability is central to understanding the world of science, games, business, and other endeavors. This lecture introduces the basic laws of probability.
33 min
02: The Nature of Randomness
Randomness refers to situations in which given results are unpredictable, but a large enough collection of results is predictable. The goal of probability is to describe what is to be expected from randomness.
31 min
03: Expected Value-You Can Bet on It
Expected value is a useful measure for making decisions about probabilistic outcomes. It provides a numerical way to judge whether to bet on a particular game or make a particular investment.
31 min
04: Random Thoughts on Random Walks
A random walk is a description of random fluctuations. It aids the analysis of situations ranging from counting votes to charting pollen on a fishpond, and it explains the sad fate of persistent bettors.
31 min
05: Probability Phenomena of Physics
Quantum mechanics describes the location of subatomic particles as a probability distribution. Weather predictions also give probabilistic descriptions; but what is the meaning of a statement like "There is a 30 percent chance of rain tomorrow"?
31 min
06: Probability Is in Our Genes
Because randomness is centrally involved in passing down genetic material, probability can be used to model the distribution of genetic traits and to describe how traits of whole populations alter through a random process called genetic drift.
29 min
07: Options and Our Financial Future
By characterizing the expected behavior of a stock in the future and describing a probability distribution of its likely future price, mathematicians can quantify sophisticated risks in options contracts. However, the practice can be a very dangerous game.
31 min
08: Probability Where We Don't Expect It
What does probability have to do with determining if a number is prime, or deciding football strategy, or training animals? More than you might think-probability often plays a central role where we least expect it.
31 min
09: Probability Surprises
No course on probability could be complete without a discussion of two of the most famous examples of counterintuitive probabilistic scenarios: the birthday problem and the Let's Make a Deal® Monty Hall question....
31 min
10: Conundrums of Conditional Probability
Conditional probability refers to a situation where the probability of one event is affected by some other event or piece of information. Principles of dealing correctly with conditional probability are tricky and highly nonintuitive.
30 min
11: Believe It or Not-Bayesian Probability
This lecture looks at probability from a different point of view: namely, probability associated with measuring a level of belief as opposed to measuring the frequency with which the results of a random process occur. This is the Bayesian view of probability.
30 min
12: Probability Everywhere
A pair of paradoxes shows the power of the Bayesian approach in analyzing counterintuitive cases in probability. The course concludes with a review of the topics covered and the importance of probability in our world.
32 min
